Canada’s Immigration Boom: Will We Hit a New Record This Year?

Immigrants became new permanent residents of Canada in growing numbers in May, continuing the upward trend of monthly immigration to the country that started the previous month, the latest data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) reveals.

After a lacklustre March, monthly immigration spiked by 22 per cent in April and then grew again by 9.3 per cent in May with 46,550 newcomers that month, driving the total number of new permanent residents to the country in the first five months of the year to 210,865.

Trend in First Five Months Could See Canada Welcome 530,556 New Permanent Residents This Year

Based on that volume of arrivals, the total number of new permanent residents to Canada this year could hit 530,556 if that trend were to continue for the rest of 2024.

That would be 12.5 per cent more new permanent residents to Canada this year than the 471,815 in 2023, which was a record-breaking year for immigration.

That projected level of immigration would also be far in excess of the 485,000 new permanent residents Canada has indicated it will welcome into the country under its 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan.

The projected number of new permanent residents this year would be 9.4 per cent higher than the country’s targeted level of immigration for the year.

It would even be higher than the immigration target of 500,000 new permanent residents for each of next year and 2026.

Monthly Immigration Trends and Regional Distribution

There is, however, a great deal of normal variance in monthly immigration levels.

Although monthly immigration is now trending back up after a slow start to the year, the number of new permanent residents to Canada in the first five months of this year, at 221,065, remains 4.6 per cent lower than the total number of new permanent residents for the same period last year which had a stronger start.

Canada’s biggest province by population, Ontario, was the most popular destination for newcomers in the first five months of this year with 88,250 new permanent residents choosing to settle there.

That means the central Canadian province was the destination of choice for more than 41.8 per cent of all immigrants to Canada during the first five months of this year.

Economic programs, including the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP), Agri-Food Immigration Pilot (AFIP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Caregiver programs, Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP), Federal Skilled Trades (FST) and Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) programs, the Start-Up Visa (SUV) and Self-Employed Persons (SEP) programs, and the Temporary Resident to Permanent Resident Pathway accounted for about 53.5 per cent of all new permanent residents coming to Ontario during the first five months of this year.

Alberta Saw the Biggest Percentage Spike in Immigration in May

Those programs helped 47,195 new permanent residents arrive in Ontario during that period.

Another 21,245 new permanent residents arrived in Ontario through family sponsorships and 16,225 came to that province through Canada’s refugee and protected persons programs from January through to the end of May.

The other provinces and territories attracted the following number of new permanent residents each during those five months.

• Newfoundland and Labrador – 2,455
• Prince Edward Island – 2,195
• Nova Scotia – 7,135
• New Brunswick – 7,310
• Quebec – 24,270
• Manitoba – 10,800
• Saskatchewan – 10,565
• Alberta – 27,800
• British Columbia – 29,410
• Yukon – 455
• Northwest Territories – 180
• Nunavut – 25

Across the country, Alberta was the province that saw the biggest percentage increase in monthly immigration in May with the number of arrivals of new permanent residents rising by 17.8 per cent.

Among the country’s three territories, only the Yukon saw a monthly immigration rise, going up 13.3 per cent in May compared to the previous month.

Nunavut saw a drop in monthly immigration of 50 per cent and the Northwest Territories’ monthly immigration fell by 28.6 per cent in May.

Canada’s Immigration System

Canada operates a two-tier immigration system which allows foreign nationals to gain their permanent residency through the federal Express Entry system’s FSW, FST, and CEC programs and the Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) of the 10 Canadian provinces.

Temporary immigration to Canada, which skyrocketed during the pandemic, is expected to come under an immigration levels plan in September, a government official has announced.