Rising Temporary Residents in Canada: What’s Behind the Surge?

The Bank of Canada forecasts that the federal government could miss its goal of reducing the share of temporary residents in Canada's population over the next three years. In March, the government announced an objective to decrease their share from 6.2% to 5% by 2027.

However, the Bank of Canada recently predicted that this target might not be met. In its monetary policy report, the bank noted that non-permanent residents (NPRs) constituted 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April, higher than at the time of the March announcement, and this share is expected to continue rising in the near term.

The report highlights "considerable uncertainty" around these projections and indicates that details on adjustments to most temporary resident permit programs are anticipated later this year. The projections will be revised as more measures are announced and additional details on program changes become available.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) stated that measures to address the influx of temporary residents will be included in the upcoming immigration levels plan, which will expand to account for both temporary and permanent resident arrivals. This plan will be presented in the fall after consultations with provincial and territorial counterparts and other stakeholders.

Targets are expected to be finalized over the summer, following meetings between the government and provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring. The government has also taken steps to manage the significant rise in temporary migrants who come to Canada to work or study. Plans were announced to cap the number of international students for two years starting in January.

Recent IRCC data shows an increase in student permits approved in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, a record year for student permits. The government approved 216,620 student permits in early 2024, up from 200,505 in the same timeframe in 2023.

However, the cap on student visas wasn't finalized until April, so the current IRCC numbers might not yet reflect these changes.